As you Yanks may or may not have heard, they have a hung parliament in Oz as of last week's elections (notably different from they have hung parliament). MacroMan's explanation of things and how they may trade off of it:
Article Here
Showing posts with label MacroMan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MacroMan. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
MacroMan on Deflation v. The Bond Bubble
In this post, TeamMacroMan make a few good points:
1. The smart corporates are issuing debt (IBM sub 1%). The good companies usually issue debt at the lowest possible interest rate (duh)
2. fixed income trades seems very crowded (by both mainstream media and trader positioning standards)
I agree with their thought that these factors (plus the greatly appreciated likely absence of Fiscal Stimulus 2.0) could result in a very brutal snap to the upside for interest rates.
1. The smart corporates are issuing debt (IBM sub 1%). The good companies usually issue debt at the lowest possible interest rate (duh)
2. fixed income trades seems very crowded (by both mainstream media and trader positioning standards)
I agree with their thought that these factors (plus the greatly appreciated likely absence of Fiscal Stimulus 2.0) could result in a very brutal snap to the upside for interest rates.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Gold, Guns and Canned food no longer at a premium
As a gold trader, this post by Team MacroMan is near and dear to my heart (with nice charts that I can't figure out how to steal). I've been playing the slow summer sell-off for some time.
Of course, I could get my comeuppance if we get another large news event for a European sovereign debt fear. Something like Spain's cajas not being able to raise the necessary capital required by the EU stress test results (which are weak at best anyway) and then continuing to see their economy (20% of EU GDP) continue to decline amid ever-increasing unemployment (above 20%) and sky-rocketing savings rates (18.5% ).
That sort of event aside, I think it is entirely possible we could see sub $1000 prices per ounce over the coming months. I think the appropriate analogy is that of a bonfire (I would never dare to call it a bubble, right?), we need more buyers to keep this thing propped up. As physical demand (jewellery, etc) is hitting mulit-year lows and we're no longer getting the boost from new hedge fund investment (thanks John Paulson!), I think we're looking at a steady bleed down for awhile. There are many scenarios where I'm wrong, I'm just trying to flesh out the base case. Having to publish it publicly forces me to organize the thoughts better and if it benefits you? Well, then that much better!
BSY
Of course, I could get my comeuppance if we get another large news event for a European sovereign debt fear. Something like Spain's cajas not being able to raise the necessary capital required by the EU stress test results (which are weak at best anyway) and then continuing to see their economy (20% of EU GDP) continue to decline amid ever-increasing unemployment (above 20%) and sky-rocketing savings rates (18.5% ).
That sort of event aside, I think it is entirely possible we could see sub $1000 prices per ounce over the coming months. I think the appropriate analogy is that of a bonfire (I would never dare to call it a bubble, right?), we need more buyers to keep this thing propped up. As physical demand (jewellery, etc) is hitting mulit-year lows and we're no longer getting the boost from new hedge fund investment (thanks John Paulson!), I think we're looking at a steady bleed down for awhile. There are many scenarios where I'm wrong, I'm just trying to flesh out the base case. Having to publish it publicly forces me to organize the thoughts better and if it benefits you? Well, then that much better!
BSY
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
An Intro to Macro Man
One of my favorite blogs for the last few years has been MacroMan. While the original MM has retired (he was an anonymous macro portfolio manager at an institutional HF in London), he has since passed on the duties to some colleagues of his with the group nom de plume of Team MacroMan (TMM).
Today's post from them (link) mentions the phenomena of contrarian indicators among the general investing public as well discusses gold and what they expect out of global equity market volatility. Today, they discuss these themes in the context of Deutsche Bank's new structured product to hedge for tail risk (their clients to be long equity volatility). It does seem appropriate with the rising popularity of the concept of black swans (Nicholas Nassim Taleb's books are excellent on the subject) that perhaps if John Q. Public is starting to get long equity volatility, it might be time to settle in for some low-volatility summer trading. This is, of course, only one aspect of the entire investment spectrum, which could be highly influenced by renewed fears of a sovereign debt default (especially in the EU), but its an interesting aspect nonetheless.
Not quite as reliable as the Time Magazine contrarian indicator, but its close.
BSY
Today's post from them (link) mentions the phenomena of contrarian indicators among the general investing public as well discusses gold and what they expect out of global equity market volatility. Today, they discuss these themes in the context of Deutsche Bank's new structured product to hedge for tail risk (their clients to be long equity volatility). It does seem appropriate with the rising popularity of the concept of black swans (Nicholas Nassim Taleb's books are excellent on the subject) that perhaps if John Q. Public is starting to get long equity volatility, it might be time to settle in for some low-volatility summer trading. This is, of course, only one aspect of the entire investment spectrum, which could be highly influenced by renewed fears of a sovereign debt default (especially in the EU), but its an interesting aspect nonetheless.
Not quite as reliable as the Time Magazine contrarian indicator, but its close.
BSY
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