One of my favorite blogs for the last few years has been MacroMan. While the original MM has retired (he was an anonymous macro portfolio manager at an institutional HF in London), he has since passed on the duties to some colleagues of his with the group nom de plume of Team MacroMan (TMM).
Today's post from them (link) mentions the phenomena of contrarian indicators among the general investing public as well discusses gold and what they expect out of global equity market volatility. Today, they discuss these themes in the context of Deutsche Bank's new structured product to hedge for tail risk (their clients to be long equity volatility). It does seem appropriate with the rising popularity of the concept of black swans (Nicholas Nassim Taleb's books are excellent on the subject) that perhaps if John Q. Public is starting to get long equity volatility, it might be time to settle in for some low-volatility summer trading. This is, of course, only one aspect of the entire investment spectrum, which could be highly influenced by renewed fears of a sovereign debt default (especially in the EU), but its an interesting aspect nonetheless.
Not quite as reliable as the Time Magazine contrarian indicator, but its close.
BSY
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