NYT Op-Ed on Eating Local

If I can, I generally choose to eat local produce. There's a large farmer's market in London (Borrough Market) where I buy most of my meat, fruit and veggies for the week. I don't particularly do it for the environmentalist perspective, but it's a decent side-benefit I suppose.

With that in mind, I found this guest Op-Ed from Stephen Budiansky in the NYT particularly interesting: Math lessons for Locavores. He pretty much takes ardent 'eat local' supporters to task if they do it for the wrong reason. A good read.

One of his readers responded with some interesting research of their own, that takes it a step further (and a step in the right direction as well, both logically and nutritionally):

A recent Department of Agriculture study reported that 28 percent of food energy use comes from households while much of the rest — 57.6 percent — comes from the processing, packaging, transportation, wholesale and retail, and food service energy use that locavores are seeking to avoid.

A real locavore cares about all of these steps.

A locavore wouldn’t go for a Twinkie, even if the Hostess factory were two miles down the road. 

Please note the lack of food/eating puns that always accompany this sort of thing.

Link-fest

Bloomberg - BP released a report taking partial responsibility for the Deepwater Horizon disaster. Also to blame? Everyone else.Still, an interesting look at exactly what happened in the days leading up to the explosion. I have learned more about drilling than I ever thought I would.

WSJ - After an emergency meeting this morning, Japan has pledged to use trillions of yen to limit the rapid increase in the yen. Japan's very fragile recovery is largely based on exports. A strengthening yen makes exports less competitive on a price basis. You can understand their concern.

The Big Picture - Excellent, succinct summary of week's events (as always).

Bloomberg - Bernanke's speech in Jackson Hole. Pretty much a non-event. Elaborated how the Fed could act further in the event of further economic deterioration. The most salient point (to me) was that the Fed cannot do this alone. I interpret this as a very polite way of saying that monetary policy can't help much if fiscal policy, housing, consumer demand and bank lending are all working against it. But that is my interpretation.

Mark's Daily Apple - Mired in Media - Discusses the three day rule behind unplugging from technology once in awhile and also some of the detriment of attempting to multi-task.

Weekend Update: Summer Bank Holiday Edition

Here's what is going on in BradWorld:

Today is the Summer Bank Holiday. Yes that is a real thing. I have the day off, but markets are open everywhere else in the world, so www.bloomberg.com/tv will be on in the background all day.

Summer is pretty much over here. Days are rapidly getting shorter and the highs for the day are in the low 60s for the next few days. That's 19 for those of you worldly enough to use the metric system (better men than me).

The Notting Hill Carnival is going on yesterday and today. It's kind of like Mardi Gras in New Orleans, but in London and with less nudity (apparently). What it definitely does is bring many of the less desirable citizens of London into my quiet little neighborhood. Fortunately, there are policemen every 50 yards or so, but that doesn't entirely stop some vandalism and general mischief. I took a rain check on the festivites this year.

I'll spend most of today reading One Good Trade (book), The Economist, and The WSJ plus the usual blogs and such. BUT, I'll do it from my couch in sweatpants! Also, lots of paleo-friendly cooking (learned poached eggs this morning) and probably a nap or three.

I also managed to watch yet another terrible movie: Date Night (Steve Carrell and Tina Fey). I love bad movies and this was terrrrrrrible.I'm on a bad streak right now after In Bruges.

Further proof that cricket is a terrible, terrible excuse for a national pastime (and that Pakistan just can't catch a break): Pakistan threw their match against England and got caught via an undercover investigation.

What Fat Ladies in Bikinis tells us about investing

Its the Friday before a long weekend here (its actually called Summer Bank Holiday), so here's great post at Weakonomics (via Ritholtz) about average investor rationale. My favorite:

Oh sure, she knows she’s big, but she’s refusing to admit how big she is.  Just like the investor knows they’ve lost money, but they won’t sell because they don’t want to admit it to themselves.  In her world, she isn’t really fat until she gives up and starts wearing the one-piece.  She hasn’t lost money until she sells the stock.

By wearing the bikini, she’s sending a message to herself that she could still slim down, or that she’s not as big as she is.  Exhibit 1B on the other hand knows she’s big, and just wants to have fun at the beach.  She knows she’s big, but doesn’t want to distract herself or others by jumping into the back-cleavage olympics.  She’s just as likely, if not more likely to actually make a turn around.  She’s the one who sold her stock at a loss and moved on with her life.  It’s the rational decision, and the best one for her bottom line (and perhaps her waistline.

Enjoy. This also reminded me of this bumper sticker:

Time's 50 Best Websites of 2010

Time's 50 Best Websites of 2010 is out. I actually had coffee this morning and it seems all of the UK is already checked out for the 3 day weekend, so here are a few of the more interesting ones to me**:

National Geographic - I haven't checked it out yet, but how can it not be awesome?
The Daily Beast - I've read individual stories from here, seems to be a great news and analysis blog
Mint.com - aggregates financial data from all of your different sources: credit cards, banks, brokerages, etc
SeatGuru - I use this before every flight to check out which seat to get
Grooveshark - I can't get Pandora in the UK and this seems cooler anyway. I've tried it starting this morning and it is very slick. Way more flexibility than any other music-streaming site I've ever found.
WalkJogRun - Haven't used it yet, but seems like a good alternative to mapmyrun.com which always disappoints a little
Rent the Runway - while I won't be renting high-style dresses anytime soon, this makes sooo much sense. Girls only wear nice dresses a few times anyway, why not rent? Brilliant.

**Note that I'm not doing links because of sheer volume. Just search for any you might be interested in.

Deadspin is on fire... in a good way

If you are a sports fan don't read the anti-politically-correct sports blog Deadspin, you should. It does contain some adult humor, but doesn't censor their writers to maintain relationships (á la ESPN and SI). Here are some great links from recent week or so:

They were able to get financial statements from several small-market teams with disproportionate benefits from revenue sharing (specifically Pirates and Marlins). They also have docs for the Rangers. 

The fallout from previous post regarding MLB team financials.

Perfect example of what they don't do: Pull comments from their highest paid cheerleader (Rick Reilly) because he might have made a comment disparaging Bud Selig

The Beauty of Women's Tennis

The NYT shot some high-style high-res slow-motion video of women's* tennis players. It's pretty cool. Some look powerful, some are a little too artsy, but the overall effect is still very cool.

Check it out here

*Still not convinced Serena Williams is a woman.

Structural v. Cyclical Unemployment

Felix Salmon has a good post at Reuters about cyclical v. structural unemployment.

I tend to fall into the structural camp because of changes in technology, increasing labor force rigidity (thanks unions!) as well as the home ownership /regional inflexibility Mr. Salmon mentions.

H/T Reformed Broker

MacroMan's take on Aussie Politics

As you Yanks may or may not have heard, they have a hung parliament in Oz as of last week's elections (notably different from they have hung parliament). MacroMan's explanation of things and how they may trade off of it:

Article Here

Beware Leveraged ETF Slippage

There's an Article in Barron's regarding some of the dangers of leveraged ETFs. Since you have to have subscription access, here is the link to The Big Picture's write-up.

I've used these before for the short-term because of market concerns and while they can be effective, it is somewhat buyer beware as you do give-up some of the upside potential via their market mechanisms (i.e. futures and options instead of a pure short play). They can be valuable in small doses as a cheap and easy hedging solution as well.

Scott Adams Saves the World

The Dilbert creator's Saturday Essay in the WSJ this weekend was great. He explores how difficult it is to truly build a green home (through his own personal experience). One of my favorite lines:


The greenest home is the one you don't build. If you really want to save the Earth, move in with another family and share a house that's already built. Better yet, live in the forest and eat whatever the squirrels don't want. Don't brag to me about riding your bicycle to work; a lot of energy went into building that bicycle. Stop being a hypocrite like me. [emphasis mine]

And later:

Photovoltaic systems are a waste of money. But I'd do it again in a heartbeat, because I love the Earth, damn it. In my defense, the price of your future photovoltaic system will never come down unless idiots like me pay too much today. You're welcome.

Links

Here are the interesting stories I've been reading last night and this morning:

Record number of Americans are pulling from their retirement (hardship exemptions and the like) - Zero Hedge via Reformed Broker

Wall Street Firms are Firing again - WSJ - When the firms that generate the research are cutting staff, that can't be a good sign. Also, beware of the possibility of banks being operationally bearish but pedalling bullish research.

Nice, gloomy outlook from the WSJ Europe this morning (which I read on the tube every morning, if you wonder)

Gold as Currency more than Commodity - WSJ - H/T Big Picture - I've heard it before. Gold is different. But its really its own category, so lets stop putting the square peg in the round hole.

Long article in the NYT about PR missteps so far this year á la Toyota, Goldman, BP and LeBron.

The Most Isolated Man on the Planet

Check out this article in Slate


He's an Indian, and Brazilian officials have concluded that he's the last survivor of an uncontacted tribe. They first became aware of his existence nearly 15 years ago and for a decade launched numerous expeditions to track him, to ensure his safety, and to try to establish peaceful contact with him. In 2007, with ranching and logging closing in quickly on all sides, government officials declared a 31-square-mile area around him off-limits to trespassing and development

Definitely not an econ read or anything, but interesting thought experiment to put yourself in his shoes (which he doesn't wear, of course).

Hat tip Reformed Broker 

Should a modicum of political knowledge be require to vote?

A friend of mine from my JPM days sent me this test from Pew Research Center. 11 quick, very simple, multiple choice questions. The test itself is hardly difficult, but what is interesting are the average results. The really scary thought is that you would think the political IQ of people being directed to a web-based quiz would be slightly biased towards higher education folks. The test results are frightening. No wonder politicians treat us like we're not paying attention, their electorate has the average wherewithal of a cucumber.

You can see the national results after you finish the quiz. Take the quiz here.

I would fully support a required 6 or 7 out of 11 passing score in order to vote. This reminds me of one of my all-time favorite Family Guy quotes (I'm trying to find the video but failing, punchline at the end):

Chris: Yes, I had to chase the butterfly. I came out here to observe nature. What did you come out here for?

Stewie: I came to the woods because I wished to live deliberately, and see if I could not learn what it had to teach, and not, when I came to die, discover that I had not lived.

Chris: Wow, Stewie. That was beautiful. Did you write that?

Stewie: No. [to the audience] But can you tell me who did? Log on now.

[music plays in the background, A. Robert Frost, B. Henry David Thoreau, and C. Thornton Mellon appears on the screen. After a couple of seconds, the music stops]

Stewie: [to the audience] All right, let's tally up those responses.

[Stewie looks at the results on the screen. 15% appears next to Robert Frost, 18% appears next to Henry David Thoreau, and 67% appears next to Thornton Mellon.]

Stewie: [annoyed] Wow. You know who that is? You know who Thornton Mellon-- [B. Henry David Thoreau remains on the screen as the other disappear] First of all, it was Henry David Thoreau. [B. Henry David Thoreau disappears from the screen] But do you know who Thornton Mellon is? That was Rodney Dangerfield's character in Back to School. You feel good about yourselves? Huh? This is why the other countries are beating us, you know! So you know, you got only yourself to blame next time you go to the vet and complain that Indian doctor is too rough with your cat.

Oil Left in the Gulf

The Deepwater Horizon spill was a disaster. No one would refute that. What is debatable now is how should we best prevent a similar occurrence and what will be the long-term consequence of the spill in the Gulf. We'll probably never have exact answers for either.

Outside mag had a brief blog entry this morning with some really good links. I've watched the Carl Safina TED conference video and he has some good points, even if he is a bit riled up. There will be many studies around NOAA report released August 4. From the blog:

NOAA released a report estimating that 74 percent of the oil had been captured, skimmed, dissolved, burned, evaporated, and dispersed. As many have already pointed out, dispersed and dissolved do not mean gone. 

Various studies will have differing conclusions for different reasons (some honest, some less so), but we will at least get more information regarding the long term effects of the spill. Even if Washington is more concerned with pointing fingers.

Jobless Claims... Ouch

Weekly Initial Jobless claims started with a 5-handle for the first time in 9 months... Via MarketWatch:

For the week ended August 14, initial claims rose 12,000 to 500,000. This is the highest level since the week ended Nov. 14, 2009. Claims have risen for three straight weeks.

Claims had fallen as low as a 427,000 level in mid-July but have worsened steadily since. Economists are troubled by the lack of vigor in the labor market. With the unemployment rate near double-digit levels, businesses and households do not have the confidence to spend and invest.

This week's rise was unexpected. Economists had been projecting a slight decline was in the cards.
For the week ended August 7, initial claims were revised up to 488,000 from a previously reported 484,000. 

Not good.

Cointerpoint to the Bonds-as-Bubbles Argument

Shortly after that last post, I found this post from Pragmatic Capitalism (via Reformed Broker). Interesting, if not long-winded, argument against the bond-bubble theory.

One thing I notice upon first glance, though, is that he seems to be a bit picky about the definition of a bubble. Would there ever be decrease on par in magnitude with the Dutch Tulip Bubble of the 1800's? No.

But, will you be pissed off if the long duration piece of your fixed income portfolio gets needlessly smoked because your portfolio manager is worried about underperforming a benchmark by a few bps?I would bet so.

Still, he has an excellent point that perhaps we are throwing around the term 'bubble' a bit haphazardly. Perhaps there is another term that will succinctly (and with a bit of colloquialism) describe an asset that has significantly outrun its fundamental, rational price parameters and is due for a fall? Perhaps I'll just call it Sisyphus at the top of his slope.

US Treasuries as a Bubble?

Like many inflated asset prices, US treasuries have been dealing with the bubble question for awhile now. It feels like a crowded trade and we're heading into historic low yields based on everyone having similar thinking. While I'm not saying everyone is wrong (I fear the US is already deflationary, per previous posts), I'm just saying the upside potential from here is very limited (could the 10 year go sub 2%??), whereas a mean reversion would be a disaster for anyone with long duration.

Barry Ritholtz has a good post at The Big Picture regarding Bloomberg's Chart of the Day from yesterday. It puts the US Bond price appreciation in a perspective I think almost anyone can understand: the dot-com bubble. Enjoy.

History of World GDP

In the effort of always keeping things in historical context, let's zoom way out:

Interesting perspective (I stole this from The Big Picture) on how China and India are simply mean reverting to their traditional contributions to world GDP. Ritholtz rightly points out that this is a function of population size first and that the industrial and technological revolutions catapulted the US forward (an advantage that will inevitably be dispersed in the coming years).

JetBlue's All-You-Can-Fly deal

 From Outside magazine blog:



The pass, which comes in two forms ($700 to fly any day; $500 excluding Fridays and Sundays), covers from September 7 to October 6 this year. Flights must be booked three days in advance or there is a $50 booking fee. Changes or cancellations within that time period also incur a $50 fee.
There are a limited amount of tickets and, according to The Huffington Post, they sold out quickly last year.

This is awesome! I wonder if Southwest will ever match with something like it. If I were in the states, I would hop on this immediately for some weekend adventures. Mountain bike one weekend and SUP/Fly fish the next?


Someone please do this and let me know how it goes

Can the Nation Stimulate Its Way to Prosperity?

Note: this started as a quick post on the Dallas Fed paper and devolved into a macro-econ wrap-up. More for my benefit than anyone else's as it helps me to step back every once in awhile and make sure my head's not buried in the sand. Gold trading is very much a macro-economic exercise at times. Apologies for the stream-of-consciousness disorganization:

The Dallas Fed (led by my favorite Fed president, Richard Fisher) has released a letter looking at Can the Nation Stimulate Its Way to Prosperity? My favorite line:


Compared with no stimulus, the stimulus plan in 2009 alone was expected to increase GDP by 1 to 3 percentage points, raise payroll employment by 500,000 to 1 million jobs and lower the unemployment rate by half a percentage point.

At first glance, it doesn’t appear the stimulus achieved these objectives. 

In the year after the plan’s passage, the labor market continued to hemorrhage jobs and unemployment climbed above 10 percent. Indeed, the unemployment rate is now higher than it was expected to be without the stimulus plan—and has been every month since the plan’s passage (Chart 5).

This seems inconsistent with official estimates of the plan’s performance. 


The first quarterly report, including data through September 2009, found that the plan had created or saved about 1 million jobs and boosted GDP 2 to 3 percentage points in the second and third quarters.[2] Subsequent analysis from the Council of Economic Advisers and several private forecasting firms found even more favorable results, seeing the stimulus on track to save or create the 3.5 million jobs that were originally forecast for the 2009–10 period. How can this be? 

To be fair to administrations past and present, I think the economic situation if left alone would be worse than it is now, but I'm not sure we've justified the costs.

The basic equation of macro-econ is: GDP = C + I + G + net export (where C= consumption, I=investment, G=Govt spending). If a country's economic health is measured in GDP or GDP per capita (which are very debatable issues, but that's an entirely different post), then we are simply running against the old adage by trying to spend our way to prosperity or borrow our way out of debt. The fact that it is now the public sector instead of the private sector (we saw how this would turn out starting in August 2007) shouldn't make that big of a difference right?

There's a good analogy on saving v. spending in the article: If I give you seed corn, you can either eat it now or plant it and  eat it later (after some further investment) as a much larger quantity. The growth rate of the corn would be analogous to our current interest rate environment. Low rates should induce spending v. saving but we're not seeing that because of future concerns. Companies are raising capital at record low rates (IBM sub 1%) but not increasing CapEx. No one is hiring because of political uncertainty and overhead costs.

Despite record low rates, the velocity of money (as measured by M2) doesn't seem to be creeping higher at all and consumer prices are dropping. It's very possible (even likely) that I'm missing something, but how are we not entering a deflationary period? Especially if home prices have another 10% down to go? And I won't even go into the ridiculous lengths the gov't is going to in order to give the banks higher profitability and a larger cushion for real estate losses that they aren't even marking down.

Everyone has a proposed solution and none of them are perfect, but it certainly does seem to me that fiscal policy has failed (mostly because of poor execution of the stimulus) and monetary policy isn't being as effective as normal because of political uncertainty. I'm not sure that there is a point of no return for deficit to GDP ratios, but I am sure that its not good to test it in any case. In some ways its similar to my stance of global warming/climate change: we don't know how bad it will be (or exactly how to deal with it), but we are very certain it won't be good.

WSJ Looks at Off-Road Marathons

If you are a runner and haven't read Born to Run, you should. It's well written and will make you want to head out the door and onto your nearest trail (it also got me to think about converting from my Vibram Five Fingers to completely barefoot, but that's for another day).


The WSJ has an article today looking at the growing trail running phenomenon, though their quantitative proof leaves something to be desired (12% growth v. 11%??? It's a trend!!).

Colombians Must Be Tougher Than Nails

Pretty much everything that could go wrong went wrong on the landing apporach for this plane in Colombia. It was hit by lightening while 80m from the ground, crashed and broke into three pieces. Of 131 people on board, one person died (and only of a heart attack).

Wouldn't it have been easier for Death just to get the guy in his sleep rather than the effort of crashing the plane and sparing everyone else?

Or is the moral of the story that we should never, ever go to war with Colombia?

Article via WSJ

Links!

WSJ: Ten Reasons to be Cautious

iBankCoin: The Michael Phelps Econ Conundrum (i.e. Inflation or Deflation: DEFLATION)

WSJ: China will probably be named world's second largest economy after 2010 (beating out Japan)

Bloomberg: 'The expendables' demolished 'Eat, Pray, Love' at the box office. Guns > butter tea

Bloomberg: Gold goes up forever (GGUF)

London Can Be a Cool Place to Run

To interrupt my marathon session of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 on my brand new (to me at least) Playstation 3, I threw on my Vibram FiveFingers and went on an aimless run. Ended up running for an hour.

In that brief period I was able to run through: Hyde Park, Kensington Palace & Gardens, Buckingham Palace, Green Park, The Wellington Arch, Horse Guards Parade Grounds and around St. James Park. I was about 100 yards from Big Ben and Westminster Abbey. All in the span of an hour, on foot.

In Dallas I would have seen... Highland Park and the Katy Trail. Check it out:


View Larger Map




Kind of cool that in mid-August I can run for an hour at 4pm and not have any heat issues here as its only about 70 degrees outside.

Should we have taken the blue pill?

Great post from The Reformed Broker. A bit dramatic, but that's what makes it fun. If you're looking for a post to inspire confidence as an investor, this is not it.

I'd post a summary or analysis, but I think its best in original form.

I want all of this stuff. I will find a need for it.

The Gear Junkie's best of the Outdoor Retailer awards.

Cool gadgets to shave weight or add some creature comfort or just get faster.

In case you are having a bad day, Boogie Til You Poop

My day is fine, but if I have a bad day soon, at least it won't be captured by someone with a high quality digital SLR. Video is Not Safe For Work.

Boogie 'til You Poop from Cedar Wright on Vimeo.

ACC Power Rankings

Its almost fall, which means its almost time for college football. ESPN has already relegated Wake to the bottom of the ACC power rankings. With Riley Skinner having graduated, I can't hardly blame them. We have gotten some very talented recruits in the past few years and should be helped by a swarming defense.

No marquee names, but talent all-around and a defensive mindset? At the bottom of the preseason ACC rankings? Sounds an awful lot like 2006 to me. Not that I'm being optimistic or anything.


Now if only I can find a place to watch the games... Done.

Rick Reilly's Followup from the strangest non-athletic sporting accident

Read Rick Reilly's followup on the Word Sauna Championships death from this year. I posted on this about a week ago.

Maybe our economy could use some CrossFit

Quote of the day from Bloomberg's Caroline Baum:

“What we had was a government-prescribed course of amphetamines (to keep it up), antibiotics (to prevent infection) and antidepressants (to make it feel better). It endured regular steroid injections from both monetary and fiscal authorities. And it still has no real muscle.”

Hat tip Ritholtz

QE 1.5

As expected, The Fed has announced that they will roll capital from maturing mortgage-backed-securities into 2-10 year treasuries. While not monumental enough to warrant being described as QE2, Barry Ritholtz has dubbed this QE 1.5 and I find that to be very appropriate. If they instead simply allowed the cash from maturing securities to let be, it would shrink their balance sheet (even if sloooooowly) and be considered somewhat of a tightening bias. Since the Fed thinks the recovery may be stalling (see WSJ article), this is not a very strong vote of confidence in the economy.

Gold popped up above $1200/oz on the news but has since settled down a bit. The USD is weakening substantially against some fo the major currencies as the rest of the G7 is beginning a tightening bias. Don't expect cheap international travel for awhile.

For what its worth, I'm not sure what the continued benefit of QE will be going forward. It seems to me that market/political uncertainty is inhibiting growth more than an access to cheap money. All that the corporates are doing (a lá IBM) is raising cheap money to pay off more expensive debt, shore up balance sheets and generally hoard it as if Cormac McCarthy were writing their future.

Personal update

Business is, well... busy (in a good way). Gaining some traction with potential clients. We seem to have at least established proof of concept. Now its all about execution.


Here's your bit of government-targeted vitriol for the day via Bloomberg: The US is Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know it. A bit dramatic, but some good points.

Tuesday morning reads

Quick links:

Unemployment: Structural or Cyclical? - Similar to a preivous post I made that I'm too lazy to find right now

JetBlue Pilot curses at passengers via the PA system, then pulls emergency chute on tarmac (after grabbing a roadie)

Finalist dies in World Sauna Competition - Rick Reilly did a write-up on this a few months ago and now someone dies. Coincidence?


WSJ: Cheap Money isn't free - What does it mean when IBM can issue debt below 1%? Great for banks, sucks for you. Remember macro-econ about savers v. spenders?


If anyone would like to lend me $4 million (its in US Dollars, so that's cheap right?) I'll buy this house in Montana and you can all visit (WSJ House of the Day) OR $15MM will net you this bad boy (also in Montana)

WSJ Opinions: Why I'm not Hiring. Interesting (if politically motivated) take on why a medium business owner isn't hiring.

Anything interesting that I missed?

Versus commercial almost good enough to make me remember that Versus exists outside of hockey season

Noooooooo!!!

Turns out the Beer Festival closed at 5 yesterday. We showed up around 5:30. Imagine my disappointment. Its ok, red wine is more proper paleo anyway.

Also, In Bruges might be one of my least favorite movies of all time. I won't rant, but seriously? On the other hand, a friend introduced me to some decent (if not crude) British television comedy yesterday. I never thought I'd write that. It's like Jerry Jeff Walker sings in The London Homesick Blues....

Followup on Automated Driving

Again, via the Freakonomics blog at the NYT, here's a followup to my previous post regarding the possible future automation of driving.

Full article here

I'm off to Borough Market to get my grass-fed (and exotic game) meats for the week and keep me from getting bored of chicken and steak. Then on to my epic cheat-day/birthday at The Great British Beer Festival. Great Divide and Sierra Nevada, here I come.

Flash Crash Investigation

Long read out of the WSJ investigating the Flash Crash. I haven't fully read it yet, so I won't post any thoughts just yet:

Full Article Here

Friday Afternoon

It's been a hectic Friday (busy is a good thing though!), but I'm out of here soon. If you're wondering what I'll be up to tomorrow, try the Great British Beer Festival. I'm not going for the local ales (they're rubbish, to use the proper vernacular) but there will be some great American microbrews there. Its part of what the Brits and beer experts are dubbing the American (beer) Revolution.

Also, its John Moncrief's birthday today (and he is exactly one year older than me). While it would be fun to be in Dallas to celebrate, I'm not sad about missing the heat I keep hearing about.

Sucker for gadgets

OK, one more quick one that just popped up... gear envy from the Outdoor Retailers show as covered by Outside magazine. Even the biggest couch potatoes will find something in here to lust after

CLICK!

Quick Post

Really busy day, but a quick post before a little more work and then leaving for my weekly softball game.

1. I'm going to Oktoberfest 10/1-10/2 should be a blast.
2. I'm open for all of August, busy every weekend in September.
3. Two quick, interesting posts from
a. MacroMan - Deflationary environment but commodities are taking off
b. The Big Picture - Boomer Bust - Impact of demographics on the sluggish recovery

Have a good day

Musica!

Second time this week I have a post heavily influenced by Mom (what would Freud say???). She wanted to know what I'm listening to these days and thought I should post it here. I'll post a recommended intro song by each to give anyone interested a sample


Jam Band/Bluegrass: Railroad Earth ("Mighty River" and "Old Man and the Land"), OAR ("Anyway"), Tea Leaf Green ("Taught to Be Proud") and Assembly of Dust ("Second Song"), Virginia Coalition ("Home this Year"), Umphrey's McGee ("In the Kitchen", Jupiter Coyote ("Breckenridge")
Texas Country: Texas Renegade (upbeat with harmonica "The Rain"), Ryan Bingham ("Sunrise"), No Justice ("Still Missing You")

Ed. note:  Can't forget Reckless Kelly "Bulletproof" and My Morning Jacket "Mahgeetah"

Anything I need to try?

MacroMan on Deflation v. The Bond Bubble

In this post, TeamMacroMan make a few good points:

1. The smart corporates are issuing debt (IBM sub 1%). The good companies usually issue debt at the lowest possible interest rate (duh)
2. fixed income trades seems very crowded (by both mainstream media and trader positioning standards)

I agree with their thought that these factors (plus the greatly appreciated likely absence of Fiscal Stimulus 2.0) could result in a very brutal snap to the upside for interest rates.

Two articles: Gold and Equity valuations

First interesting article is from The WSJ regarding China's decision to remove some restrictions in Chinese bank gold trading. Upon hearing this news, gold has been up about $10/ounce in less than 24 hours. We'll see if this adds to China's long term importation demand for the yellow metal.

Second link is from the Big Picture. We have once again hit the 50% retracement level in the S&P 500. Stocks (once again) are not inherently cheap. Ritholtz draws the conclusion : "That does not mean we cannot grind upwards from here; it just means that its going to take a lot of something — good earnings, liquidity, sentiment, breadth, momentum, psychology, quantitative easing, something – to move higher from here"

I would have to agree.

How Texas is Dominating the Recession

Quick article in The Atlantic about how well (relatively) Texas has fared through this economic cycle. There is apparently an article in The Economist comparing it to California and Michigan, but my subscription has expired.

View the article here

via Macro and other market musings

Data Mining for Taste across Demographics

Interesting article in the WSJ about fashion, tastes and geography. I particularly found this quote to be interesting given the long-held stereotype:

Retailers' data also bust a few commonly held beliefs. Though Dallas has a flashy, big-spending image, the average woman there spends less on fashion than one in notoriously frumpy Washington, D.C., according to fashion website ShopItToMe.com.

Full article here via Freakonomics Blog

Design/Layout

Mom: What happened to that cool picture you used to have on it?
Me: You mean the generic one with the plane flying around the map? It was distracting.
Mom: Yeah, I liked that. Put it back or add another picture, its too bland.

Since I apparently can't add a custom picture, the old one will have to do. Mother knows best.

Lust-inspiring articles in Outside magazine

A quick post before I get back to calling (or "ringing"as the locals would say):

Outside magazine has always been one of my favorites and today I had a few articles pop up in my blog-reader that inspired some serious wanderlust:

1. The coolest water-related trips - Mongolian "river wolves", Patagonia paddling, Turkish sailing, Fijian surfing, Alaskan heli-fishing, rafting in Uganda. I don't think I would ever be dissapointed with any of these.
2. New toy by Hobie Cat - a two person, tandem, sailing kayak (can be used for surfing, paddling, exploring or fishing). There are a few other cool kayak/water toys in this article too. I want them all.
3. America's Best Adventure Bars - European beer is fine, but there is something about the microbrews that dominate the watering holes in the US that is just hard to beat.

I can't dwell any longer on this or I'll never get back to work.

Weekend Update

The power was out at the office for 6 hours on Friday. That made for some fun calls on the mobile and me reading a book between repair appointments by the light of our lone skylight. I was alone in this as my flatmate, Stewart, was in the US for a wedding. Weird Friday to say the least.

Friday night, Nicole and I saw Toy Story 3. It. Is. Awesome. Seriously, a great movie. We both thought that it was way more for adults than for kids (not that its inappropriate for the youngins, just that it was complex and well written).

Saturday, it was time for Crossfit (10 reps down to one rep of 100kg back squat mixed with one rep increasing to ten reps of chest-to-bar pullups). It's a little workout I made up myself and it huuuuurts. That's 55 squats at 220 pounds and 55 big pullups in 13 minutes. Ow ow ow. Then, we explored the Borough Market. It's like a huge well organized farmer's market. We picked up plenty of Paleo food that will serve as delicious meals for the near future. Ostrich filets, venison, pork and wild boar burgers with lots of fresh veggies.

Speaking of Paleo, Saturday night was our cheat night! Since it's Nicole's last weekend in town she treated me to dinner at a local, highly acclaimed, authentic pizzeria. I had wine, she had Prosecco. Our pizzas were enormous, delicious and served by the half-meter (seriously) on wood planks fresh from the oven. We devoured that, thanked our hardly-English-literate-waiter and then went looking for dessert. After stopping at two bakeries, we had the correct combination of a cookie, a carrot-cupcake, and two brownies. Of course, I felt awful on Sunday morning and now understand why the concept of a cheat day can be so powerful: I want nothing to do with sugar, starch, dairy or alcohol for awhile. We'll see how long that lasts.

Ed. note: If you're confused by any of this "Paleo" talk, check out the book, wikipedia page or the everydaypaleo blog that I look to for delicious recipes.

So far today, we went to early service at the beautiful St. Mary Abbots (Church of England). Its current structure is only 130 years old and the stained glass, columns and vaulted ceilings are gorgeous. A great, quiet place to worship. Then we went to a free workout one of the other Crossfit gyms hosts in the park on nice Sundays. We ran to the locale, did a 13 minute intense bodyweight workout and then ran home. Lucky for me, the workout included more squats! (no weight this time though). Ouch again.

The rest of the day has been filled with prepping for Monday (including reading the WSJ about the SEC charging the Wyly brothers) and watching Mad Men on iTunes. I'm seriously addicted. We've plowed through about 16 episodes since Wednesday. I don't like TV, but its a great show that about half of you have recommended and I'm sure the other half have meant to. You were right.

The big news going into tomorrow, is that I should be fully functional for trading! Fingers crossed that there isn't yet another unforeseen circumstance and that I'll be decent at what I was sent here to do.

Of course, the other news of note is that Nicole is heading back to the states on Tuesday. We've had soooo much fun and I'm really sorry to see her go.

Best,
Brad