OKCupid is an online dating service with something like 4 million users. Nothing noteworthy in and of itself it would seem. BUT they have a reputation for doing some really interesting analysis on their own users in order to unearth some findings about humans as social creatures. Their most recent post (Hat tip Barry Ritholtz for pointing it out) looks at how a girl's perceived attractiveness influences the number of messages she receives.
Of course, the most simple correlation is being hot. A higher attractiveness rating generally leads to a higher number of messages received, but there is another factor as well. It seems that a higher standard deviation of opinions leads to a higher received message total as well. Basically, if men disagree on whether the girl is attractive or not, the ones that find her attractive are more likely to send her a message while generically 'cute' girls (ranked 3 and 4 consistently on a 5 star scale) get relatively ignored.
Here is where game theory comes into play: The authors' supposition is that if men think there is less likely competition for a girl they find attractive, their perceived likelihood of success (i.e. a reply message) goes up. That increase in probability of desired outcome increases their cost-benefit of acting (by sending a message). In a wager, there are two factors that increase your desire to gamble:
1. Higher potential winnings (in this case a more attractive partner)
2. Higher probability of winning (a reply message from said potential partner)
The interestingly worded result: "If someone doesn't think you're hot, the next best thing for them to think is that you're ugly."
Brilliant! Basically, it is suggesting that women creating an online profile should have an edgy picture (unless you are guaranteed to get all 5's, in which case you are probably not on an online dating site). As they suggest:
If you're a little chubby, play it up. If you have a big nose, play it up. If you have a weird snaggletooth, play it up: statistically, the guys who don't like it can only help you, and the ones who do like it will be all the more excited.
In a real world sense, it makes the woman less intimidating.
Check out the full article here
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